On February 9, Ecuador held the first round of general elections in a context marked by a growing wave of violence and deep political polarization. As part of the Electoral Transparency Observation Mission, we monitored this electoral process and provided an objective view of the events surrounding it.

Ecuador has faced serious security challenges. The expansion of drug trafficking and organized crime has increased violence levels, placing the country in a delicate position regarding citizen security. This situation has created uncertainty and distrust among the population, which has impacted the electoral climate.

Political polarization has intensified, with two main figures emerging in the electoral arena: the incumbent president, Daniel Noboa, and left-wing former legislator Luisa González. These two candidates represent opposing visions for the country’s future, exacerbating existing divisions and reflecting the fragmentation of the Ecuadorian electorate.

Ecuador, located in the northwestern region of South America, holds a strategically important position. Its access to the Pacific Ocean makes it a key hub for international trade and maritime routes. Additionally, its proximity to the Panama Canal and its membership in the Pacific Basin grant it a significant role in regional trade and geopolitical dynamics.

Historically, Ecuador has maintained a foreign policy focused on defending its sovereignty and promoting regional integration. It is a founding member of organizations such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States and actively participates in initiatives aimed at strengthening cooperation and development in Latin America.

In the current context, Ecuador’s geopolitical position takes on additional significance due to global and regional tensions. The competition between powers such as the United States and China for influence in Latin America places Ecuador in a situation where its political and economic decisions may have repercussions beyond its borders.

In terms of trade, Ecuador has diversified its international relations. According to data from the country’s Central Bank, from January to November, Ecuador’s average exports to China between 2016 and 2023 amounted to USD 2.844 billion. Meanwhile, in 2023, non-oil trade between the United States and Ecuador resulted in a surplus of USD 1.474 billion.

Besides the United States and China, Ecuador’s other key trading partners include the European Union, Russia, and Colombia, with whom it maintains significant trade exchanges in various sectors.

Donald Trump’s reelection in 2024 has reshaped U.S.-Latin America relations. The Trump administration has adopted more confrontational policies, focusing on issues such as migration, trade, and security. These policies have created tensions with several countries in the region, including Ecuador.

One of the most notable aspects has been the imposition of tariffs and restrictive trade measures on nations that, according to the Trump administration, do not cooperate on migration or security issues. Although Ecuador has not been directly affected by similar measures, the possibility of facing trade sanctions has influenced government decisions and internal political debates.

Additionally, China’s growing influence in Latin America has been a concern for the Trump administration. China has increased its investments in the region, becoming a key trade partner for several countries. Ecuador, in its effort to diversify economic relations, has strengthened its ties with China, which could create friction with the United States under Trump’s foreign policy approach.

Despite the mentioned tensions and challenges, the electoral process on February 9 took place without major incidents. Voter turnout was remarkable, with over 83% of voters going to the polls, reflecting the population’s civic commitment during critical times for the nation. It is important to note that voting in Ecuador is mandatory, which contributes to a high voter participation rate.

Although our mission was not deployed within the country, we observed that the National Electoral Council (CNE) effectively carried out its duties, providing timely and accurate information, which strengthened confidence in the electoral process.

Preliminary results indicated a technical tie between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, with approximately 44% of the votes each. This narrow margin confirmed the need for a second round, scheduled for April 13.

Notably, while Noboa held a slight lead in the initial counts, González exceeded expectations, particularly in regions where correismo (the political movement associated with former President Rafael Correa) had previously had less influence. This performance highlights a potential reconfiguration of Ecuador’s political landscape.

Daniel Noboa has sought to strengthen ties with Donald Trump’s administration. He attended Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 and has expressed his intention to enhance Ecuador-U.S. bilateral relations. Additionally, he has adopted trade policies similar to Trump’s, such as imposing a 27% tariff on Mexican imports, aiming to boost local manufacturing and align with U.S. trade strategies.

On the other hand, Luisa González is considered the political heir of former President Rafael Correa. Throughout her political career, she has held various positions in his administration and maintained a close relationship with him. While this association has provided her with a solid support base, it has also drawn criticism due to corruption cases linked to Correa’s government. González has defended her mentor’s administration, labeling the accusations as political persecution, and has pledged to continue the policies of the Citizens’ Revolution if elected.

The second round presents a significant challenge for both candidates. Noboa will have to defend his administration amid criticism of his tough security policies and accusations of authoritarianism. Meanwhile, González will face the challenge of expanding her electoral base beyond correismo, seeking alliances with other political and social sectors.

The stance of the Indigenous movement, represented by Pachakutik and its leader, Leonidas Iza, will be decisive. Their support could tip the balance in favor of either candidate, making them key players in shaping the next government. Both Noboa and González will need to forge alliances and political agreements with various forces to secure victory.

_{*Machine translation proofread by Janaína da Silva.}