Four new viruses that could cause next pandemic with warning over 'Disease X'

UK health experts have pinpointed four high-risk emerging viruses with the potential to trigger the next global pandemic, dubbed "Disease X".

In a report, the UK Health Security Agency identified the virus families that pose the greatest pandemic threat, cautioning that some are not well understood. One prominent scientist has sounded the alarm, warning that a particular virus poses a "threat far worse than coronavirus>Covid... impossible to control by even the strictest lockdown".

The agency assessed the pandemic potential of 24 virus groupings, assigning a risk rating of high, moderate, or low. The analysis took into account factors such as the infectiousness of new strains, the severity of the diseases they could cause, and the UK's vulnerability to these pathogens.

Considering Britain's geographical location, population demographics, and available treatments, the UKHSA's risk rating specifically evaluates the danger each pathogen poses to the country. The four virus groups deemed to have a high pandemic risk include:.

The Paramyxoviridae family, which encompasses measles and the Nipah virus, a pathogen that can cause fatal brain swelling, reports the Mirror.

The Picornaviridae family, responsible for enteroviruses that trigger polio-like diseases, including acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), which causes muscle weakness and paralysis.

The Coronaviridae family, comprising coronaviruses such as Covid-19 and MERS, prevalent in the Middle East.

The Orthomyxoviridae family, which gives rise to various forms of influenza, including bird flu. The Paramyxoviridae family of viruses, which includes pathogens similar to measles, is known to cause severe brain inflammation that can be fatal.

As vaccination rates decline, significant outbreaks of measles have been reported globally. Complications from the disease can be grave, leading to pneumonia, eye issues including vision loss, and encephalitis—an inflammation of the brain resulting in seizures, hearing loss, and brain damage.

Professor Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious diseases at Edinburgh University, warned: "A novel measles-like virus would pose a threat far worse than Covid. Such a virus would have a much higher R number than the original variants of Covid – making it impossible to control by even the strictest lockdown. It would also be considerably more deadly, and unlike Covid, it would be a threat to children. This is the kind of pandemic that public health agencies around the world are most concerned about."

Additionally, measles has a menacing effect on the immune system, essentially erasing its memory. Should a major outbreak occur, it could pave the way for an upsurge in various other infections nationwide.

Remarkably, a study conducted by Harvard Medical School in 2019 revealed that measles can eliminate between half to three-quarters of the antibodies that guard against previously encountered viruses or bacteria.

Moreover, the Paramyxoviridae family counts the Nipah virus among its members, which has sparked epidemics in South East Africa and Southeast Asia. Nipah virus infection can also result in deadly brain swelling, preceded by fever, headache, cough, sore throat, and breathing difficulties.

The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) 'Priority Pathogens' framework has flagged the Picornaviridae virus family as posing a high risk, which includes the enterovirus capable of causing acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), a condition resembling polio. AFM affects the spinal cord and can lead to sudden muscle weakness, diminished reflexes, and potentially paralysis – predominantly impacting children.

Speaking on the subject, Dr Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer for UKHSA, emphasised the global scope of infectious diseases, stating: "Infectious diseases don't respect borders so all of this has an international dimension. In the context of the changing climate and other threats there are a wide range of pathogens that could cause the next pandemic."

UKHSA's approach in identifying potential viral threats diverges from other global registers by considering not only the established risks of a pathogen initiating a future pandemic but also assessing the dangers associated with insufficient knowledge about the pathogen. Higher risk ratings are assigned to some pathogens due to their relative obscurity and limited research, which has resulted in a lack of available tests, vaccines, or treatments.

Additionally, the risk profiles of certain pathogens, including bacteria, are exacerbated as they evolve resistance to antibiotics or because our changing climate is making the country increasingly suitable for their proliferation. The UKHSA's goal is to steer national research and development funding towards tackling these challenges, aiding in the creation of diagnostics, vaccines, and treatments.

Dr Oliver further stated: "This tool is a vital guide for industry and academia, highlighting where scientific research can be targeted to boost UK preparedness against health threats. We are using the tool as part of our conversations with the scientific community, to help ensure that investment is focused to where it can have the biggest impact. We hope this will help to speed up vaccine and diagnostics development where it is most needed, to ensure we are fully prepared in our fight against potentially deadly pathogens."

Dr Oliver indicated that one of the agency's concerns involves the redistribution of disease-bearing mosquitoes and ticks due to environmental and climate changes. She elaborated: "So that means the change in the distribution of mosquitoes and ticks that can carry viruses that cause adverse health effects to humans, and also to animals in some ways, and that is one area that we're monitoring very closely. The UKHSA maintains surveillance of mosquitoes and ticks, and we work with partners in local government and animal health and other sectors to really understand any changes that might potentially affect our health in the UK."

Professor Woolhouse emphasised the importance of preparedness for various pandemic threats, often referred to as Disease X, stating: "There are many potential kinds of novel pandemic threats – so-called Disease X – and the UKHSA report is a timely reminder that we should not put all our eggs in one basket. Our response needs to be scalable, adaptable and quick. Knowledge, information and data collected in the first few weeks of the next pandemic will be crucial to tailoring our response appropriately. We need the systems to gather that data in place in advance and ready to be activated, possibly at very short notice."

Professor Robert Read from Southampton University and Editor in Chief of the Journal of Infection commented on the practice of creating infectious disease priority lists: "Lists like this have been made for many years, and they represent an effort to prioritise infections for advisory and funding purposes, ostensibly to align research funding as closely as possible to public health need. Unfortunately, pathogens emerge or change constantly, and it is difficult to predict big infectious disease problems coming down the line."

He further critiqued the effectiveness of such lists, saying: "For this reason, I think this list is at best pointless, and at worst potentially harmful to the public health. Pointless because the list of viruses is so long that its tricky to name a significant viral pathogen that has not been included. Potentially harmful because a prescriptive list like this could misdirect funding towards certain infections, and away from problems that need urgently to be solved."

A new report, co-authored by Sir Jonathan Van-Tam, is calling for improved global data sharing to monitor emerging Covid-19 variants. The document, penned by the ex-deputy chief medical officer for England who served during the pandemic, highlights a growing "public fatigue" towards Covid-19 but emphasises its ongoing threat, particularly to the elderly and those with vulnerabilities.

This comes in the wake of a Mirror survey involving 15,000 UK residents which revealed that 40% now think the nation's decision to enter lockdown was mistaken.

Professor Van Tam remarked: "Great scientific progress has been made since COVID-19 emerged five years ago when we started with limited knowledge to fight the virus. Today, we have a range of effective tools including vaccines, tests and treatments available that remain key in the current endemic and to protect at risk groups. Healthcare leaders need to be vigilant and ensure that best practice, data and information continues to be shared between clinicians and policymakers to strengthen countries' preparedness for new variants and any future challenges."