US Capitol Police prepare to arrest protestors staging a die-in inside the rotunda of the Cannon House Office Building as part of a protest against cuts to foreign aid, in Washington, DC on February 26, 2025. (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Experts and HIV charities have warned that cuts to prevention initiatives, including the far-reaching rollback of funding caused by the freezing of US aid – could have devastating effects on infection rates around the world.
Researchers warned that global infection rates could rocket by more than 10 million by 2030 because of cuts to aid in countries such as the US, France, the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.
In an analysis of proposed and planned cuts to HIV prevention schemes, published on Wednesday (26 March), researchers at the Burnet Institute, in Australia, warned that there could be up to 2.9 million more HIV-related deaths worldwide by the start of the next decade.
The research comes after Donald Trump rescinded federal funding for numerous HIV-related research schemes and, in January, fired contractors at the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy, which covers treatment for maternal health, malaria and tuberculosis as well as HIV.
In France, the budget for Official Development Assistance – funding that benefits low and middle-income countries – was cut in 2024 and 2025, with this year’s shortfall amounting to £1.8 billion ($2.3 billion).
Anne Aslett, the chief executive of the Elton John Aids Foundation, said the report’s findings demonstrated the “critical” need for donor countries to reconsider the cuts.
“If funding for the global HIV response falls away to the extent this report suggests it could, millions more people will get sick, and health budgets will simply not be able to cope,” Aslett added.
The spending cuts, if approved, could significantly affect people in the countries that receive 50 per cent of all international HIV spending, including Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bhutan, Cambodia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, the Dominican Republic, Eswatini, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Malaysia, Moldova, Mongolia, Mozambique, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe.
UK determined to fight HIV despite budget cuts
Burnet Institute researchers also warned that the UK government’s pledge to slash 40 per cent of its budget from 2027, which includes cuts to aid, could have an impact on global HIV cases.
Having recently become the first UK prime minister to publicly take an HIV test, Keir Starmer has reiterated his government’s commitment to end new HIV cases in the country by the end of the decade.
“If people test, they will know their status, it is better that people know,” he said, adding that home test kits were “free, confidential and easy”.
Adrian Lovett, an executive director at One, an organisation that campaigns for the investment to create economic opportunities and healthier lives in Africa, said Britain’s commitment to HIV prevention was vital in the fight to end cases around the world.
He urged the government to reconsider the “devastating 40 per cent cut,” warning that it made Starmer’s words “sound hollow”.
Lovett went on to say: “Powerful nations look to Britain for leadership on international aid. By ruthlessly slashing our aid budget, the prime minister risks unleashing a contagion of cuts across the Western world. It will lead to more deaths and more HIV infections, and will hurt us at home too. Infectious diseases don’t stop at national borders.”
HIV cases have been decreasing by at least 8.3 per cent each year worldwide since 2010, with HIV-related deaths falling by 10.3 per cent annually.
Professor Linda-Gail Bekker, a director at The Desmond Tutu HIV Centre and chief executive of the Desmond Tutu Health Foundation said the worst-case scenario would be HIV cases rebounding “in ways we haven’t seen for decades”.
She urged governments to “come together to agree a plan that builds on the astonishing progress to date, keeps infection rates down and supports countries to build resilient health systems for the long term”.
Share your thoughts! Let us know in the comments below, and remember to keep the conversation respectful.
How did this story make you feel?
