View: BJP's 2019 poll campaign has already started. And it's multi-pronged

By Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay
BJP’s campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls has been launched unobtrusively. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi quietly embarked on his election campaign with strident speeches in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, indicating a not-so-subtle shift in his campaign’s thrust. To counter this — although in the making for some time — Opposition parties, too, have moved the non-confidence motion against the government to be debated today.

Although numbers favour the treasury benches, the debate provides an opportunity for the government to state its case and get off the starting block. The debate’s political backdrop is similar to August 2003, when Congress moved a no-confidence motion against the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government despite numbers being stacked against the former. Then, too, there appeared little challenge to BJP. But the party went on to lose the parliamentary poll. Modi has learnt from Vajpayee’s failure, and this is evident in the way he has shifted political gears.

Mistaking Motion for Action
Despite the no-confidence motion marking a welcome return to parliamentary discussion, the electoral campaign is certain to be divisive, as BJP is intent on harping on Hindutva-based themes. There is a clear indication of a transition from the positivity of the 2014 campaign, when ‘development’ and ‘hope’ were two magical dreams that propelled Modi to power. In contrast, this time the discourse appears grounded in negativity. Instead of vikas (development), BJP’s catchphrase is likely to be a synonym of vinash (destruction). And, vinash, BJP will publicise over the weeks and months, awaits people if Opposition parties get a shot at forming a government.

The shift in the political discourse has been palpable for some time in the BJP’s pitch. In 2014, Modi was the Chosen One. But now, BJP’s question to voters is: if not Modi, then who? From being ‘the alternative’, a mandate will be sought by the open use of the TINA — There Is No Alternative — argument. The campaign will paraphrase Indira Gandhi’s slogan used in the 1978 by-election for her comeback when Chikmagalur constituency in Karnataka voted her back to the Lok Sabha: ‘Ek sherni, sau langoor’ (One tigress, a hundred monkeys).

In 2014, Modi was projected as the person who would lead India into a glorious future. Now, he is being showcased as the person who will ensure that the nation does not slip into the depths of hell.

BJP’s campaign, so far, is four-pronged. First, a publicity drive is underway listing ‘achievements’ and ‘promises fulfilled’. Second, the delivery of various schemes announced by Modi — for instance, the health insurance scheme Ayushman Bharat — is being speeded up. These are not to be merely rolled out, but formal procedure will be accompanied by highoctane campaigns to publicise functions like hand-delivering millions of ‘family cards’. The effort of these two layers is to project Modi as a man who delivers on promises made, and to elevate a feel-good sentiment.

The other layers are also political thrust areas. An indication of what is being prioritised is firstly evident in the new name Modi has given Rahul Gandhi: Shreeman Naamdar. This is a departure from ‘Shehzade’ in 2014, while labelling UPA as ‘Dilli ka sultanat’, both tags dropped after being criticised for their communal undertone.

Naming and Gaming
‘Naamdar’ (literally, family name-ist) is an allusion to dynasts. Modi’s use of the term is not just targeted at Gandhi but several other challengers too, who are from political families and inherited parties. It reinforces the argument that while this regime is a BJP-led coalition, the aspirants are a motley bunch who ‘fought each other till the other day’ with no clear leader. Although BJP, too, had got into marriages of convenience, the crime is, of course, graver when committed by an adversary.

The campaign’s last layer has the potential of being most damaging to the nation in the long run. For a party that was never defensive about its belief — articulated by Manmohan Singh at a National Development Council meeting in December 2006 — that minorities, including religious minorities and scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, “must have the first claim on resources”, the Congress has lost its ability to state this openly.

Even if Gandhi’s recent statement about the Congress ‘being a party for Muslims’ at an interaction with Muslim intellectuals is recognised as having been a misrepresentation of what he actually said, there is no denying that the Grand Old Party has become diffident about its stance on minorities.

The BJP’s political necessity to mount a polarising campaign stems from the fact that in 2014, the majority of seats it won from states are most likely to respond to such a campaign.

In 2013, Modi famously stated he had little qualms in declaring himself to be a ‘Hindu nationalist’. The true import was couched in development niceties.

The gloves first came off in Bihar when BJP president Amit Shah said that crackers would be burst in celebration in Pakistan if BJP lost, and in Uttar Pradesh with the ‘shamshaan-kabristaan’ (cremation groundgraveyard) analogy.

In this context, one can be certain that leading up to 2019, BJP will prioritise the projection of its commitment to Hindu majoritarianism.