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Warren and Buttigieg Surge in Iowa at Expense of Sanders and Biden

Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg increasingly are gaining momentum ahead of the February Iowa caucuses.

Senator Elizabeth Warren speaking to local Democrats at Vinton-Shellsburg High School in Iowa on Saturday.Credit...Jordan Gale for The New York Times

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — For months, the presidential race in Iowa was a contest between two titans of the Democratic political world, each representing distinct poles of a party struggling to define its identity in the Trump era.

Now, with just three months to go before the caucuses, the ideological debate has remained the same, but the key players have shifted.

For now, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is being eclipsed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg, of South Bend, Ind., a Midwestern mayor less than half his age who has captured the energy of those looking for the party to move in a more centrist direction. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has seen much of the message that had lifted him to political fame in the 2016 primary contest co-opted by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

In polling, enthusiasm and organization, there is now a yawning gap between Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Mr. Buttigieg and the other 13 Democrats running for president. A poll taken this week of likely caucusgoers by The New York Times and Siena College shows the top four candidates locked in a virtual tie atop the field, with the next contenders — starting with Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, at least 13 percentage points behind.

[The latest data and analysis to keep track of who’s leading the race to be the Democratic nominee.]

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Mr. Buttigieg at the N.A.A.C.P. Economic Freedom town hall at Drake University in Des Moines on Saturday.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
The Daily Poster

Listen to ‘The Daily’: The Democratic Showdown in Iowa

At the state’s biggest political event of the year, candidates vied for salience before the first votes of the nomination race.
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Listen to ‘The Daily’: The Democratic Showdown in Iowa

Hosted by Michael Barbaro, produced by Clare Toeniskoetter and Monika Evstatieva, and edited by Lisa Tobin

At the state’s biggest political event of the year, candidates vied for salience before the first votes of the nomination race.

michael barbaro

From The New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is “The Daily.”

Today: In exactly three months, the first election of the Democratic presidential primary will be held in Iowa, marking the official start of the race. Over the weekend, the party held its most important political event yet in the run-up to that election — a fabled annual dinner attended by almost every remaining candidate in the campaign. It’s a closely watched test of who exactly has the political support, financial might and organizational prowess to become the nominee. “Daily” producers Clare Toeniskoetter and Monika Evstatieva traveled to Des Moines to meet up with political correspondent Reid Epstein, who was covering the event.

It’s Monday, November 4.

clare toeniskoetter

O.K. So Monika and I fly to Des Moines, not really knowing what to expect. This Liberty and Justice Celebration wasn’t supposed to start until 6:30.

clare toeniskoetter

Testing. I don’t even have headphones on yet.

clare toeniskoetter

But we headed over to the venue at about 10:00 in the morning.

monika evstatieva

It is 9:42 a.m. on a Friday morning in Des Moines, Iowa. It’s a bit chilly. It’s 37. Crisp morning.

clare toeniskoetter

Got our winter jackets on.

monika evstatieva

Got our winter jackets.

clare toeniskoetter

And already when we got to the main street, there’s this massive crowd of people.

crowd

Party! Party! Party!

clare toeniskoetter

It’s not like any political event I’ve ever been to.

crowd

Amy for America! Amy for America! Amy for America!

speaker

Beto, Beto, Beto!

crowd

Vote Yang! Vote Yang! Vote Yang!

clare toeniskoetter

So the main event is at a big sports stadium. And it’s really fitting because the whole thing feels like a college football game. But instead of two teams, there are 14.

crowd

Kamala Harris fights back!

clare toeniskoetter

Fourteen Democratic presidential candidates.

crowd

Kamala Harris fights back!

clare toeniskoetter

So each candidate, each team has staked out their own area. And they each have —

clare toeniskoetter

Every candidate has a color, right?

speaker

Yeah, he’s black and white. I’ve got my Beto sweatshirt on underneath.

clare toeniskoetter

— their own color. Beto O’Rourke is black and white. Cory Booker is red. Elizabeth Warren is a sort of sea foam green that her team branded as “liberty green.” And some of her supporters are dressed up like the Statue of Liberty.

[drumming]

clare toeniskoetter

They also have their own music. There are competing marching bands —

[music]

clare toeniskoetter

— some better than others. And at one point, some upbeat supporters are doing this choreographed dance in the street. The whole thing just has this vibe of a big tailgate. Snacks, people sharing hand warmers. And Monika and I go around and start talking to people at these various camps.

speaker

Hi

clare toeniskoetter

Hi.

speaker

How are you doing?

clare toeniskoetter

Good. Why are you here?

speaker

I am here to follow Andrew around the country like I’ve been doing since March.

monika evstatieva

So what’s the excitement all about? What’s happening?

speaker 1

Pete. Pete. He is the most inspiring candidate, the smartest, the most everything candidate I have ever seen. I have not been this inspired in my entire life. And I would go anywhere and do anything for Pete and Chasten.

speaker 2

Why I’m here? Well, I’m here to support Joe because I think that he’s the best chance for the Democrats to beat President Trump.

speaker 3

I’m here to support Beto O’Rourke. We’ve got lots of giant banners and lots of big signs and all kinds of exciting things that we plan to do inside. So it’s going to be crazy.

speaker 4

I am campaigning for Elizabeth Warren. She’s been my favorite forever.

speaker 5

Bernie is our man. He was my man in 2016. He’s still my man. We dispel the myth of the “Bernie Bros.” I say we are the “Silver Sanders Sisters.”

clare toeniskoetter

So technically, this as a fundraiser for the Democratic Party in Iowa. And there are two ways that people can go. Big donors can pay for dinner and have special reserved seats on the floor at the event. And then candidates also buy groups of tickets that they give to their supporters for free. Those people don’t get the fancy dinner. But they do get to go sit in the stadium and cheer for their candidate. Because the way this works, every candidate goes up on the stage in the middle of the dinner floor. Their face is on the Jumbotron. And they give a 12-minute speech, one after another. And all these supporters are like their giant cheering squads. So it’s a fundraiser. But because it’s the last time all the candidates will be at the same event ahead of the Iowa caucus, it’s become something bigger than that. It’s a test of who has momentum. And it’s gotten even more significant since 2007.

clare toeniskoetter

And why Iowa? What’s important about this state?

speaker

Well, I mean, obviously, it’s pretty important in terms of the election and the primary. And I think we’re trying to duplicate the excitement that the Obama campaign had.

clare toeniskoetter

Lots of people I talked to mention what happened —

speaker

Barack Obama won the presidency in 2007 because —

clare toeniskoetter

— with Obama.

speaker

This is actually important because Barack Obama got his big start in Iowa at this dinner.

clare toeniskoetter

He was lagging behind Hillary Clinton. And then he gave this rousing speech at this dinner. Back then, it was called the Jefferson-Jackson dinner. And it gave his campaign this huge surge. And he went on to win Iowa and then, of course, the Democratic nomination. So that’s the dream of how this goes.

And one candidate in particular seems to be hoping to recreate that moment —

speaker

Mayor Pete all the way.

clare toeniskoetter

— Pete Buttigieg. He’s been focusing a ton of his campaign’s energy and resources on Iowa in recent weeks. And on Friday morning, The Times actually released a poll showing that he was polling third in Iowa and actually polling above Joe Biden.

And so you can feel this particular energy with his campaign and his supporters. The biggest turnout seems to be for him and for Elizabeth Warren.

speaker

Bernie is not taking part in the D.N.C.‘s fundraiser. And we came from Michigan to support Bernie.

clare toeniskoetter

The Bernie Sanders supporters are kind of complicated, because they’re not actually going into the event.

speaker

He’s uncorrupted. All the others take corporate money.

clare toeniskoetter

They say it because of its connection to corporate sponsors and their complicated relationship with the D.N.C. And then there’s Beto O’Rourke.

clare toeniskoetter

What just happened?

speaker

I got a news alert. And it says, U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke announces he’s ending his campaign.

clare toeniskoetter

While we’re out in the crowds that afternoon, interacting with Beto supporters, he announces that he’s dropping out of the race and won’t be speaking at the dinner. So just like that, 14 teams becomes 13. And we go to meet up with Reid outside the arena.

reid epstein

Hey. How are you?

clare toeniskoetter

Good. Hi.

reid epstein

I feel like we should hug.

clare toeniskoetter

I know. But it’s hard with a mic.

monika evstatieva

Hello!

reid epstein

So welcome to Iowa.

Right now we’re watching a parade of Pete Buttigieg supporters dressed in yellow and blue. There’s about 2,000 of them. And they are marching up 3rd Street here in Des Moines. They have bells. They’re generally making a lot of noise.

monika evstatieva

O.K. Let’s go see what happens.

reid epstein

All right.

clare toeniskoetter

Cool.

michael barbaro

We’ll be right back.

clare toeniskoetter

Reid, what happens when this dinner actually starts?

reid epstein

So you walk in. The arena that it was in is the minor league basketball and hockey arena here in Des Moines. So it seats about 16,000 people. Each campaign’s supporters had decorated their section. So there were rings of signs around the different levels with the candidates’ names on them. We were sitting about four stories above the floor.

And on the floor of the arena were several dozen tables arranged almost like a very large wedding party —

clare toeniskoetter

What are you looking at?

reid epstein

I see like Cory Booker is mingling on the floor. And I can’t tell who he’s with. It looks like it might be Chris Dodd, who ran for president here in 2008. But it’s kind of far away. So it’s hard to tell.

reid epstein

— with black-clad busboys running around and people in suits sort of sitting around at the table. These were the fat cats, the big donors. And in the seats above that were people in T-shirts, the supporters of the candidates who had gotten free tickets from the campaigns. And it was a real difference between the different groups of people.

speaker

Ladies and gentlemen, please find your seats. Our program will be beginning shortly.

reid epstein

There’s an elevated stage in the middle of the floor with four smoke machines on each corner, a long walkway that the candidates use to come in and out to get to the stage. And above it is the giant video board Jumbotron.

reid epstein

Mayor Pete is about to come out.

On the video board are pictures of him and his husband, along with a photo of him from when he was in the military.

reid epstein

And then we got to what people were waiting for, which was the candidates. And the first one up was Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

reid epstein

This is “High Hopes” by Panic! at the Disco.

reid epstein

All the candidates pick walk on songs. And Buttigieg’s is “High Hopes” from Panic! at the Disco, which is very catchy. It’s like bum, bum, bum, ba, ba, bah. That song came on. The 2,000 or so people who came for Buttigieg start screaming.

reid epstein

His supporters are in some choreographed light dancing thing, all blinking at once.

pete buttigieg

Thank you, Iowa.

Thank you, Iowa Democratic Party.

reid epstein

It’s also a rare event where Buttigieg is wearing a suit jacket. Usually he comes out in just a blue tie and a white shirt. So you know it’s a serious event for him that he’s put a coat on.

reid epstein

So that leads right into his speech.

pete buttigieg

The first time I came to this state was as a volunteer to knock on doors for a presidential candidate, a young man with a funny name.

And we knew the stakes were high then. The stakes are colossal now.

reid epstein

He talks about looking out the window of his office in South Bend and seeing kind of the decaying Midwest making a comeback.

pete buttigieg

My office is about six hours that way down I-80. And out the window of that office, I see the outlines of our ethanol plant, which is why I understand the measure of this president’s betrayal of American farmers. And I know how to talk about it.

reid epstein

He contrasts himself with President Trump.

pete buttigieg

And I don’t have to throw myself a military parade to see what a convoy looks like. Because I was driving one around Afghanistan right about the time this president was taping season seven of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” So that tough talk’s not going to work against me.

reid epstein

And he speaks about going hunting with his husband’s father in Michigan over Thanksgiving weekend.

pete buttigieg

In rural Michigan, you cannot stop a man from going deer hunting with his husband’s father.

reid epstein

And only at the end, in the last couple minutes, does he get to the real meat and potatoes of what he’s talking about —

pete buttigieg

But I also will not tire from the effort to include everyone in this future we are trying to build — progressives, moderates and Republicans of conscience who are ready for a change. The time has come.

reid epstein

— which is the contrast with Elizabeth Warren.

pete buttigieg

We will fight when we must fight.

reid epstein

So Warren’s big theme in this race is that she is a fighter, and she is going to fight for the big progressive causes.

pete buttigieg

But I will never allow us to get so wrapped up in the fighting that we start to think fighting is the point. The point is what lies on the other side of the fight.

reid epstein

He is saying, she alienates other people.

pete buttigieg

So Iowa, are you ready to bring this country together?

[cheering]

pete buttigieg

Then let us make history together. And we will have a lot to celebrate in November of next year. And we will know where to go from there. Thank you, Iowa. Thank you, Democrats. Thank you so much.

reid epstein

Buttigieg just finished. For people in this room who have been paying attention to this caucus and the campaign, that’s about Elizabeth Warren, whose campaign is to have the fight and take the fight to the people who she believes have caused the problems in the country. Buttigieg is telling a different story, talking about bringing people together from outside the core elements of the party.

[music]

reid epstein

The campaign anthem from 2012.

monika evstatieva

O.K., now we have Joe Biden.

clare toeniskoetter

Biden’s up.

reid epstein

So Biden walks out. And he’s immediately at a disadvantage, because some of the sections that his campaign had reserved are mostly empty.

joe biden

Hello, Iowa Democrats. Let me get right to it. There’s a couple of things I’ve learned in the last couple of weeks. Number one is that Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be president.

And number two, Donald Trump doesn’t want me to be the nominee.

reid epstein

He launches into the big theme of his campaign, which is he is the most electable.

joe biden

And we must beat him. And I will beat him like a drum if I’m your nominee. And he knows it. He knows it. Folks, look.

reid epstein

And then he pivots almost immediately into an attack on Elizabeth Warren.

joe biden

We can do this. We can do it quickly without taxing the middle class. We can make sure that the 160 million people who have health insurance they like can keep it if they want. And if not, they can buy in to a Medicare-like proposal. Ladies and gentlemen, that will not take four years or five years or 10 years to happen. It will happen immediately. Immediately.

reid epstein

You know, it landed with less enthusiasm than what we saw from Buttigieg, in part because he had far fewer people, but also because Joe Biden isn’t somebody who is lighting these big rooms of activists on fire. The rationale for the Biden campaign is much more about winning over casual voters or people who are not spending six hours on a Friday night at these events, people who are going to go vote, but less activist.

joe biden

So ladies and gentlemen, get up. Remember who we are. Let’s take this country back and began to lead the world again. Thank you.

reid epstein

So the next leading candidate to come out was Elizabeth Warren.

speaker

Please welcome Senator Elizabeth Warren.

reid epstein

“9 to 5” is playing. Her crowd has some sort of green lights and flags they’re waving around.

reid epstein

Her people jump up and cheer. They’re waving flags.

reid epstein

There’s a lot of waving.

reid epstein

They have a giant Elizabeth Warren banner that comes down through several sections of the arena. And her people cheered so loudly and for such an extended amount of time that her time to speak started counting down. And she had to turn to them and with palms down, encourage them to kind of cut it out so that she could begin her speech.

elizabeth warren

O.K. O.K. Hello, Iowa.

reid epstein

And then once she did, it was as if she had planned this all along to be a rebuttal to Buttigieg and Biden.

elizabeth warren

A lot of people are afraid of big structural change. Afraid because they’re already rich and powerful, and they may lose influence. Afraid because they see an America where they won’t be able to make the changes they need.

reid epstein

And she said —

elizabeth warren

Well, not me.

reid epstein

— not me.

elizabeth warren

I believe in change, and I know we can get it done.

reid epstein

I believe in change, and I know we can get it done. So that was kind of the setup for her speech. And later there was a section where she really stuck the knife in them.

elizabeth warren

Any one who comes on this stage and tells you they can make change without a fight is not going to win that fight.

2020 is our time in history. Our time to dream big, fight hard, and win.

reid epstein

Wow. I have not heard Elizabeth Warren go so hard at Buttigieg and Biden and their ideas of almost all the way to there to where she and Bernie Sanders are as she did tonight. This was sort of a new frontier for her. She’s telling the 12,000 or 13,000 people here that they’ll lose if they nominate somebody who is not fully invested in the most progressive ideas.

reid epstein

And later in the night, Bernie Sanders came on stage.

speaker

Please welcome Senator Bernie Sanders.

reid epstein

And there’s a lectern waiting for him. Unlike everyone else who paced the stage and pointed and gestured to their supporters, he stood at the lectern with prepared notes on paper that he had rolled up in his suit jacket and gave his speech.

bernie sanders

Good evening, Iowa Democrats.

reid epstein

Part of that was Bernie Sanders did not bring any supporters to this event. And instead, had a march across town in the rain.

bernie sanders

Tonight, all of us, no matter what candidate we are supporting, are in agreement that we must defeat the most dangerous president in the history of our country.

reid epstein

And then he gave what anyone in that crowd would have recognized as a condensed version of the standard Bernie Sanders stump speech.

bernie sanders

At a time of massive income and wealth inequality, the Democratic Party must become the party of the working class of this country.

reid epstein

It was the Bernie greatest hits, condensed into 11 and a half minutes.

clare toeniskoetter

So that’s four candidates. What about the other nine?

reid epstein

And the other candidates were still, nine months after this race started, doing a fair amount of introducing themselves to these activists and to Iowa caucus goers.

andrew yang

And 11 years later, one state passed a dividend where now everyone in that state gets between $1,000 and $2,000 a year, no questions asked. And what state is that?

crowd

Alaska!

andrew yang

And how does Alaska pay for it?

crowd

Oil!

andrew yang

And what is the oil of the 21st century, Iowa?

crowd

Technology!

andrew yang

Technology, software, self-driving cars and trucks.

reid epstein

Andrew Yang talked about his universal basic income proposal.

kamala harris

And I started my career fighting for the people. In fact, the first day I walked into a courtroom, I spoke five words. Kamala Harris for the people.

reid epstein

Kamala Harris talked about her career as a prosecutor.

amy klobuchar

But I come from the grit of a February snowstorm in the middle of Minnesota.

reid epstein

Amy Klobuchar said that she would win big in the Midwest.

amy klobuchar

I have won every race, every place, every time in the reddest of red congressional districts.

cory booker

Because if I am your nominee, I will inspire, engage, and ignite this nation like no other nominee can.

reid epstein

And Cory Booker talked about not criticizing other Democrats and focusing instead on President Trump.

cory booker

Iowa, I see you. I love you. I see you. I love you. Together, we will rise.

reid epstein

The last two speakers of the night are John Delaney, the former congressman from Maryland, and Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana.

reid epstein

Governor Steve Bullock of Montana is all that there is left. I think his people, this is the only section that’s still full. If you stand up, you can see them.

reid epstein

By the end, everyone, including the public address staff of the event, seemed to be exhausted.

speaker

Please welcome to the stage Senator Cory Booker.

reid epstein

Wait. Oh, no. But it’s not Cory Booker. It’s Steve Bullock. Many indignities for Steve Bullock. And by the time Steve Bullock came out, much of his speech was, in fact, making jokes about how no one was still left in the audience.

steve bullock

Thank you for staying for the keynote speaker.

reid epstein

And by the end, there was no — you didn’t have to be trafficked, because everyone had already left.

clare toeniskoetter

It was like a big blowout game.

reid epstein

Yeah. It was a 30-point basketball game in February and not the World Series.

clare toeniskoetter

That’s it.

reid epstein

That’s it. Congratulations. You’ve made it through.

clare toeniskoetter

And so you told us at the beginning of this event that one of the reasons that this event was so important is because it turned the tides for Obama in his favor 12 years ago, that it really shifted the momentum and then led him to winning in Iowa, getting the nomination, and becoming president. Do you think anybody had that sort of moment this year in Iowa? Or was it too difficult with 13 candidates taking the stage?

reid epstein

Well, I mean, the short answer is we’ll see. Sort of the more complicated answer is when Obama gave that speech 12 years ago, it was a pretty negative speech about Hillary Clinton. A lot of it was about why Obama was the best candidate. But a lot of it was about why Hillary Clinton was not. And the only person who sort of came out with that kind of bite tonight was Elizabeth Warren. And we’ll see whether she sustains this sort of argument about Biden and Buttigieg throughout, or whether this is a one-time-only event, whether this is kind of a new phase of the campaign for her, or whether this was something she rolled out just for tonight.

clare toeniskoetter

Reid, thank you.

reid epstein

Thank you. And we’ve spent 12 hours together today.

clare toeniskoetter

I’m sure we’ll be back February, if not sooner.

monika evstatieva

We’ll be back next month!

michael barbaro

The poll of Iowa voters likely to participate in February’s caucuses, conducted by The Times and Siena College and released on Friday, shows the top four candidates locked in an extremely tight race, with Joe Biden, the front-runner nationally, polling fourth in Iowa at 17 percent, behind Warren, who’s polling at 22 percent, Sanders at 19, and Buttigieg at 18. In an interview, Buttigieg said that the Iowa caucuses were increasingly becoming a “two-way” race between him and Warren. “The contrasts are real,” he said. “They’re substantive, respectful policy contrasts, but they’re real.”

We’ll be right back.

Here’s what else you need to know today.

archived recording

It doesn’t get bigger than this, a public health emergency by a Supreme Court-mandated panel.

michael barbaro

Officials in India have declared a public health emergency in the country’s capital city, New Delhi, after air pollution levels reached 20 times what are considered safe. The warning came after a toxic cloud of air settled over the city, which officials blame on car emissions, construction dust, and farmers burning their crops.

archived recording (speaker 1)

The fact is the people of Delhi N.C.R. can’t do anything about what’s happening right now, follow me? The only way to dodge this is to perhaps leave the city.

archived recording (speaker 2)

Absolutely, it’s turned into a very alarming situation.

michael barbaro

In many of India’s cities, air pollution has become so dangerous that environmentalists warn that the risk of long-term exposure can be the equivalent of smoking two packs of cigarettes a day.

That’s it for “The Daily.” I’m Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

Yet, in a field that once numbered two dozen, it is Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg who have emerged as coveted fresh faces, riding a surge of momentum. Both have been rising for months — Mr. Buttigieg from the obscurity of leading a community of 100,000 people and Ms. Warren from early campaign missteps highlighted by her ill-fated decision to release a DNA test designed to combat charges that she exaggerated her Native American ancestry.

With three months to go, the emergence of Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg has confirmed that the race is entering a new phase, as Mr. Biden struggles to regain momentum and Mr. Sanders attempts to expand his base beyond his core supporters.

“The Sanders people are mostly the same people that were Sanders people in 2016, but there seem to be fewer of them,” said JoAnn Hardy, the Democratic Party chairwoman in Cerro Gordo County, Iowa. “Some of them have moved on to other campaigns, not necessarily all to Warren. Warren has a wider supporter base than just former Bernie supporters.”

Mr. Buttigieg himself declared the contest to be a “two-way race” in an interview with the Showtime television show “The Circus,” a comment that irked several others in the presidential race.

“Anybody who thinks that this is a two-person race right now doesn’t know Iowa,” former Housing Secretary Julián Castro told reporters Saturday.

For months Mr. Biden led polls in Iowa, but he has seen his support steadily shrink as other candidates have focused their time and attention on the state.

[Make sense of the people, issues and ideas shaping American politics with our newsletter.]

“Some of the early Biden support was name recognition, some was familiarity, some was affection and respect,” said Kurt Meyer, the Democratic Party chairman of Mitchell County, Iowa. “But much of it had to be renewed and extended, much as one would renew a thick book at the local library, for it to last until early February.”

Image
Mr. Biden at the Liberty & Justice Celebration in Des Moines on Friday.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

That has left many of the remaining 13 candidates scrambling for attention, relevance and desperately needed campaign dollars.

Much of the debate among the quartet of top contenders this weekend centered around Ms. Warren’s long-awaited, $20.5 trillion proposal explaining how she would fund “Medicare for all,” which she released on Friday.

Mr. Biden on Saturday bristled at Ms. Warren’s suggestion that he was borrowing Republican talking points about her health care proposal, while at the same time accusing her of peddling plans that have no chance of being enacted as law.

“To say that you’re a Republican or you’re not loyal or you have no courage if you don’t agree with such and such a position is no way to get anything passed, I promise you,” Mr. Biden told reporters after speaking at a fish fry hosted by first-term Representative Abby Finkenauer. “You couldn’t even get it passed. You have to be able to reach out.”

For Ms. Warren, the weekend marked the beginning of a crucial stretch during which she would be compelled to sell her new plan to voters. Though not all of her supporters had familiarized themselves with the details on Saturday morning, many seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.

“She is passionate about what she’s saying,” said Renee Lapan-Islas, 50, who came to see Ms. Warren speak in Vinton, Iowa. “We struggle for money at times because of health care.”

But Ms. Warren also faced a skeptical question from a voter with Type 1 diabetes, who expressed concern about the continuity of care under Ms. Warren’s proposed transition to “Medicare for all.”

“Health care is a basic human right, and we fight for basic human rights,” Ms. Warren said, adding that the approach was “about strengthening America’s middle class” and arguing that failing to dramatically overhaul the health care system would be calamitous over the long haul.

At the fish fry, which drew the race’s seven leading candidates to a Cedar Rapids racetrack that has become a regular stop on the Democratic presidential campaign trail, the candidates parried question about rural infrastructure, river flooding and labor rights — the sort of bread-and-butter issues Ms. Finkenauer used last year to oust a Republican incumbent.

Ms. Finkenauer’s mother baked 750 cupcakes, which were heartily consumed by activists, campaign staffers and the assembled press.

Other candidates, too, recognized the new order. Mr. Biden declared Ms. Warren’s health care proposal to be divisive. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana denigrated the population of South Bend as relatively insignificant.

The weekend began with the Liberty & Justice Celebration, a party dinner seen as the last major candidate gathering before the caucuses. While 13 candidates spoke, only about half drew any kind of notable support and, of those, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren were the only ones to draw thunderous applause from their speeches.

Image
Warren supporters at the Liberty & Justice Celebration on Friday.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

The weekend marked the latest public test of each campaign’s organizational prowess. The campaigns purchase tickets for the Friday night dinner, hoping to pack the hall with their supporters.

Instead of rallying supporters for his speech, Mr. Sanders led a march that his campaign said attracted 1,500 people in the Des Moines drizzle. His aides said the campaign focused on organizing volunteers for the February caucus rather than a visible demonstration of enthusiasm inside the arena.

Mr. Biden hosted no such demonstration: Before the event began, allies of Mr. Biden quietly collected signs and noisemakers that had been placed out for supporters who never arrived.

At the end of his remarks, Mr. Biden asked the audience to “get up” and defeat President Trump.

Nearly everyone remained seated.

Katie Glueck contributed reporting from Des Moines and Matt Flegenheimer added reporting from Vinton, Iowa.

Reid Epstein covers campaigns and elections from Washington. Before joining the Times in 2019, he worked at The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Newsday and The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. More about Reid J. Epstein

Lisa Lerer is a reporter based in Washington, covering campaigns, elections and political power. Before joining The Times she reported on national politics and the 2016 presidential race for The Associated Press. More about Lisa Lerer

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 19 of the New York edition with the headline: In Peloton of 4, Warren and Buttigieg Gain Momentum. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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